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新视角第753期:李克强总理观察经济的六个窗口

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年10月23日 22:44:15
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(  作)(者)(:郑)(作)(时)(
  本)(次)(大)(连)(夏)(季)(达)(沃)(斯)(的)(总)(理)(讲)(话)(当)(中)(,有)(很)(多)(细)(节)(引)(起)(了)(公)(众)(的)(兴)(趣)(。比)(如)(总)(理)(提)(到)(,他)(观)(察)(到)(国)(内)(当)(下)(制)(造)(业)(经)(理)(人)(采)(购)(指)(数)(PMI、工)(厂)(生)(产)(者)(出)(厂)(价)(格)(指)(数)(PPI、工)(业)(增)(加)(值)(、进)(出)(口)(总)(量)(、用)(电)(总)(量)(、货)(运)(总)(量)(都)(在)(回)(升)(,就)(得)(出)(经)(济)(正)(在)(走)(好)(的)(结)(论)(。有)(不)(少)(人)(问)(,这)(个)(结)(论)(是)(怎)(么)(得)(出)(来)(的)(?
  要)(回)(答)(这)(个)(问)(题)(,其)(实)(并)(不)(容)(易)(。简)(单)(说)(,观)(察)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(,每)(个)(观)(察)(者)(都)(有)(自)(己)(的)(方)(法)(。打)(个)(比)(方)(的)(话)(,经)(济)(的)(运)(作)(纷)(繁)(而)(复)(杂)(,要)(观)(察)(它)(,有)(点)(像)(在)(一)(个)(炼)(钢)(高)(炉)(外)(面)(观)(察)(内)(部)(温)(度)(一)(样)(,必)(须)(通)(过)(窗)(口)(来)(观)(察)(。因)(为)(高)(炉)(里)(的)(温)(度)(本)(身)(有)(多)(个)(点)(,每)(个)(地)(方)(并)(不)(完)(全)(一)(样)(,有)(效)(观)(察)(,取)(决)(于)(观)(察)(者)(看)(的)(是)(哪)(个)(点)(。而)(作)(为)(一)(国)(的)(总)(理)(,李)(克)(强)(确)(立)(的)(这)(些)(观)(察)(点)(,是)(有)(很)(高)(的)(要)(求)(的)(。可)(靠)(、精)(准)(、富)(有)(时)(效)(性)(,应)(该)(是)(起)(码)(的)(要)(求)(。
  从)(总)(理)(所)(选)(取)(的)(六)(个)(窗)(口)(来)(看)(,他)(是)(从)(总)(需)(求)(方)(向)(来)(看)(待)(中)(国)(经)(济)(的)(景)(气)(度)(的)((这)(当)(然)(可)(以)(理)(解)(,因)(为)(总)(体)(来)(说)(,国)(内)(现)(在)(是)(处)(于)(生)(产)(过)(剩)(的)(状)(态)()。经)(济)(学)(把)(总)(需)(求)(分)(为)(消)(费)(、投)(资)((包)(括)(民)(间)(和)(政)(府)(的)(投)(资)()和)(进)(出)(口)(三)(个)(大)(类)(,我)(们)(可)(以)(看)(到)(总)(理)(观)(察)(经)(济)(动)(态)(的)(这)(六)(个)(窗)(口)(,都)(是)(围)(绕)(着)(这)(三)(个)(大)(类)(活)(动)(所)(反)(映)(出)(来)(的)(指)(标)(,而)(且)(这)(些)(指)(标)(相)(互)(依)(存)(、互)(相)(印)(证)(,关)(键)(是)(取)(得)(容)(易)(,相)(对)(比)(较)(好)(验)(证)(。
  我)(们)(首)(先)(来)(看)(后)(三)(项)(指)(标)(:进)(出)(口)(总)(量)(、货)(运)(总)(量)(和)(用)(电)(总)(量)(,相)(对)(来)(说)(,这)(是)(几)(个)(非)(常)(容)(易)(取)(得)(的)(指)(标)(,其)(中)(进)(出)(口)(是)(由)(海)(关)(统)(计)(所)(得)(。海)(关)(属)(中)(央)(政)(府)(领)(导)(,相)(对)(经)(济)(活)(动)(来)(说)(非)(常)(中)(性)(,而)(且)(因)(为)(涉)(及)(到)(一)(系)(列)(检)(验)(,海)(关)(对)(于)(数)(据)(的)(估)(计)(较)(少)(,所)(以)(它)(统)(计)(的)(数)(据)(,应)(该)(是)(可)(靠)(的)(。
  同)(样)(适)(用)(的)(是)(用)(电)(总)(量)(和)(货)(运)(总)(量)(,因)(为)(它)(们)(分)(别)(可)(以)(由)(供)(电)(部)(门)(和)(交)(通)(运)(输)(管)(理)(部)(门)(给)(出)(,这)(两)(个)(数)(据)(同)(样)(可)(以)(来)(自)(于)(中)(央)(政)(府)(垂)(直)(领)(导)(部)(门)(,而)(且)(数)(据)(可)(以)(直)(接)(统)(计)(得)(出)(,因)(此)(数)(据)(同)(样)(是)(可)(靠)(的)(。
  用)(电)(量)(和)(货)(运)(总)(量)(,分)(别)(联)(系)(的)(是)(企)(业)(内)(部)(的)(生)(产)(以)(及)(货)(物)(的)(运)(送)(。因)(此)(这)(两)(个)(指)(标)(虽)(然)(从)(反)(应)(经)(济)(运)(行)(的)(活)(跃)(度)(来)(说)(,只)(反)(应)(总)(量)(,但)(因)(为)(我)(们)(可)(以)(拿)(它)(们)(与)(之)(前)(的)(数)(据)(相)(比)(。再)(考)(虑)(除)(去)(进)(出)(口)(的)(增)(量)(,大)(致)(就)(可)(以)(看)(出)(除)(进)(出)(口)(外)(国)(内)(经)(济)(活)(动)(活)(跃)(度)(是)(否)(在)(上)(升)(。而)(且)(这)(两)(个)(数)(据)(窗)(口)(是)(可)(以)(验)(证)(的)(,比)(如)(说)(以)(前)(有)(政)(府)(领)(导)(观)(察)(过)(轮)(胎)(销)(售)(数)(值)(,因)(为)(轮)(胎)(的)(销)(售)(与)(货)(运)(当)(中)(最)(大)(头)(——汽)(运)(的)(增)(长)(率)(有)(相)(关)(关)(系)(。
  在)(这)(三)(个)(可)(靠)(的)(数)(据)(基)(本)(反)(应)(了)(经)(济)(的)(增)(长)(率)(基)(础)(上)(,当)(然)(要)(有)(一)(些)(指)(标)(来)(印)(证)(它)(们)(。而)(PMI、PPI和)(工)(业)(增)(加)(值)(就)(是)(重)(要)(指)(标)(,以)(当)(下)(而)(言)(,反)(映)(未)(来)(企)(业)(经)(济)(运)(行)(活)(跃)(度)(的)(PMI在)(中)(性)(略)(上)(一)(点)(、工)(业)(增)(加)(值)(也)(在)(上)(升)(,就)(证)(明)(就)(企)(业)(而)(言)(,经)(济)(在)(未)(来)(的)(活)(跃)(度)(确)(实)(可)(能)(是)(上)(升)(的)(。而)(这)(两)(项)(指)(标)(,又)(受)(到)(PPI的)(支)(持)(——由)(于)(下)(游)(的)(需)(求)(开)(始)(恢)(复)(,所)(以)(国)(内)(企)(业)((包)(括)(农)(户)()生)(产)(的)(产)(品)(受)(供)(需)(关)(系)(的)(影)(响)(,价)(格)(在)(略)(微)(上)(升)(。这)(反)(应)(了)(国)(内)(生)(产)(严)(重)(过)(剩)(的)(局)(面)(在)(改)(善)(,而)(这)(当)(然)(就)(是)(PMI回)(升)(的)(基)(础)(,也)(是)(工)(业)(增)(加)(值)(在)(上)(升)(的)(原)(因)(。
  有)(人)(会)(问)(,以)(需)(求)(来)(分)(,宏)(观)(经)(济)(有)(无)(数)(多)(的)(观)(察)(窗)(口)(,为)(什)(么)(会)(选)(这)(六)(个)(窗)(口)(呢)(?这)(是)(与)(中)(国)(的)(国)(情)(高)(度)(相)(关)(。由)(于)(国)(内)(考)(虑)(官)(员)(政)(绩)(多)(以)(GDP增)(长)(率)(为)(核)(心)(指)(标)(,而)(这)(个)(增)(长)(率)(又)(与)(诸)(多)(统)(计)(有)(关)(;而)(同)(时)(,在)(基)(层)(,大)(量)(民)(营)(企)(业)(有)(各)(种)(各)(样)(的)(避)(税)(或)(者)(是)(政)(策)(优)(惠)(的)(考)(虑)(,在)(上)(报)(数)(据)(的)(时)(候)(也)(存)(在)(高)(报)(或)(者)(低)(报)(的)(动)(机)(;因)(此)(有)(相)(当)(多)(的)(统)(计)(变)(得)(不)(可)(靠)(。
  我)(们)(可)(以)(在)(很)(多)(新)(闻)(里)(听)(到)(这)(种)(笑)(话)(,比)(如)(说)(全)(国)(的)(经)(济)(增)(长)(率)(是)(8%,但)(没)(有)(一)(个)(地)(方)(的)(增)(长)(率)(低)(于)(这)(个)(数)(字)(。为)(什)(么)(呢)(?因)(为)(“官)(出)(数)(字)(、数)(字)(出)(官)(”,官)(与)(数)(字)(之)(间)(的)(密)(切)(关)(系)(,使)(得)(本)(来)(严)(肃)(的)(数)(字)(变)(成)(了)(一)(张)(纸)(,想)(它)(怎)(么)(样)(,它)(就)(可)(以)(怎)(么)(样)(。
  这)(种)(趋)(势)(,甚)(至)(部)(分)(地)(反)(应)(到)(像)(PPI这)(样)(本)(来)(客)(观)(的)(指)(标)(上)(来)(。我)(们)(知)(道)(,PPI太)(高)(,未)(免)(要)(引)(起)(民)(众)(的)(抱)(怨)(。不)(过)(大)(家)(可)(能)(没)(有)(想)(到)(的)(是)(,PPI同)(时)(还)(是)(中)(央)(政)(府)(部)(门)(制)(订)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(政)(策)(的)(帮)(助)(指)(标)(因)(素)(。所)(以)(统)(计)(官)(员)(们)(,其)(实)(也)(是)(两)(难)(啊)(。
  不)(过)(要)(对)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(施)(政)(,相)(对)(比)(较)(精)(确)(地)(把)(握)(它)(的)(运)(行)(情)(况)(,是)(重)(要)(的)(。再)(以)(当)(下)(来)(说)(,如)(果)(经)(济)(确)(实)(在)(复)(苏)(,就)(没)(有)(必)(要)(施)(以)(剌)(激)(政)(策)(。但)(总)(理)(作)(为)(中)(央)(政)(府)(决)(策)(者)(,如)(果)(依)(靠)(代)(表)(着)(诸)(多)(企)(业)(避)(税)(动)(机)(和)(地)(方)(政)(府)(政)(绩)(意)(志)(的)(数)(据)(来)(施)(政)(,那)(是)(要)(犯)(大)(错)(误)(的)(。所)(以)(我)(们)(看)(到)(,这)(六)(个)(窗)(口)(,有)(主)(观)(的)(部)(分)((如)(PMI),因)(为)(它)(们)(反)(映)(的)(是)(微)(观)(经)(济)(当)(中)(的)(情)(绪)(,但)(涉)(及)(客)(观)(的)(指)(标)(,则)(是)(相)(对)(都)(以)(“可)(靠)(”为)(采)(集)(要)(素)(。也)(正)(是)(因)(此)(,我)(们)(看)(到)(中)(央)(政)(府)(垂)(直)(领)(导)(部)(门)(和)(利)(益)(中)(性)(,是)(数)(据)(被)(取)(样)(的)(关)(键)(要)(素)(。
  而)(同)(时)(,可)(以)(管)(中)(窥)(豹)(的)(是)(,采)(用)(这)(样)(一)(套)(数)(据)(来)(观)(察)(经)(济)(,至)(少)(反)(应)(了)(本)(届)(政)(府)(的)(决)(策)(层)(及)(智)(囊)(,首)(先)(是)(想)(对)(经)(济)(发)(展)(有)(所)(作)(为)(,所)(以)(努)(力)(寻)(找)(可)(凭)(借)(施)(政)(的)(指)(标)(;而)(其)(次)(,李)(克)(强)(总)(理)(作)(为)(主)(导)(者)(,对)(于)(经)(济)(的)(发)(展)(还)(是)(相)(当)(内)(行)(,也)(对)(国)(情)(非)(常)(了)(解)(的)(。
  当)(然)(,通)(读)(本)(次)(夏)(季)(达)(沃)(斯)(论)(坛)(李)(总)(理)(的)(讲)(话)(,最)(令)(人)(感)(到)(希)(望)(的)(,仍)(然)(是)(他)(对)(于)(市)(场)(经)(济)(方)(向)(的)(价)(值)(观)(。只)(要)(有)(这)(种)(方)(向)(在)(,观)(察)(经)(济)(的)(窗)(口)(还)(是)(容)(易)(找)(的)(。
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