• 微博
  • 微信微信二维码

广东省人民政府首页  >  要闻动态  >  广东要闻

两大重点:货币政策正常化和利率市场化

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年02月21日 21:29:06
【字体:

优彩网是正规的吗信誉平台官方,招龙虎和代理注册实力诚招代理Q扣992.77.339时时彩龙虎和,意彩彩票代理,意彩官网,意彩平台注册,意彩乐官网,意彩娱乐官方网站两大重点:货币政策正常化和利率市场化

季后赛哪5人面临压力最大?乐福唐斯在列,哈登最需正名 限价之后的深圳楼市充满怪象,楼市到底怎么了? 2017-2018赛季五大“王”:哈登30.4分获得分王,威少荣膺助攻王 国乒功勋名将退役!恩师马琳被除名,自己下海经商直言脑子不够用 夜读丨每一种磨难,都是一次成长的机会 感人!刘国梁秦志戬祝福刘诗雯生日快乐 刘国梁祝刘诗雯为国立功 滴滴美团各被罚十万, 是“狗咬狗”引来的自作自受吗? 最新夺冠赔率:勇士力压火箭居首 骑士排名第三 三双+最佳新秀!西蒙斯未来生涯有3可能:开发2技能可接管联盟 摩拜单车被美团收购, 那创始人胡炜炜能从里面拿走多少钱? 一笑倾城!中国女排又一女神抵达全明星活动现场,知性大方气质佳 重返NBA!劳森与奇才签约至赛季结束 将打季后赛 劳森火线签约奇才或证山东输球不冤 CBA成重返联盟跳板 曼城魔鬼赛场最后一战不容有失 若遭4连败夺英超也是耻辱 四大联赛欲包揽欧战赛事4强席位 边缘联赛打响荣誉保卫战

(数)(量)(方)(面)(:春)(节)(后)(净)(投)(放)(显)(著)(高)(于)(去)(年)(同)(期)(水)(平)(。由)(于)(2017年)(和)(2018年)(春)(节)(月)(份)(不)(同)(,维)(稳)(春)(节)(期)(间)(流)(动)(性)(的)(投)(放)(时)(点)(也)(有)(差)(异)(,这)(里)(我)(们)(主)(要)(对)(比)(春)(节)(后)(流)(动)(性)(的)(投)(放)(。公)(开)(市)(场)(操)(作)(方)(面)(,2017年)(2月)(3日)((春)(节)(后)()至)(4月)(10日)(,公)(开)(市)(场)(操)(作)(呈)(净)(回)(笼)(10285亿)(元)(,其)(中)(2月)(3日)(至)(2月)(28日)(净)(回)(笼)(6215亿)(元)(,3月)(净)(回)(笼)(2970亿)(元)(,4月)(截)(至)(10日)(之)(前)(净)(回)(笼)(1100亿)(元)(。2018年)(2月)(22日)((春)(节)(后)()至)(4月)(10日)(,公)(开)(市)(场)(操)(作)(呈)(净)(投)(放)(2875亿)(元)(,其)(中)(2月)(22日)(至)(2月)(底)(净)(投)(放)(7300亿)(元)(,3月)(净)(回)(笼)(3725亿)(元)(,4月)(截)(至)(10日)(之)(前)(净)(回)(笼)(700亿)(元)(。财)(政)(存)(款)(方)(面)(,2017年)(1-3月)(财)(政)(存)(款)(环)(比)(变)(化)(分)(别)(为)(4281.73亿)(元)(、1902.94亿)(元)(和)(-7669.67亿)(元)(,1-2月)(合)(计)(吸)(收)(6184.67亿)(元)(流)(动)(性)(;2018年)(前)(两)(个)(月)(财)(政)(存)(款)(变)(化)(分)(别)(为)(9810.01亿)(元)(和)(-5286.95亿)(元)(,1-2月)(合)(计)(吸)(收)(4520.06亿)(元)(流)(动)(性)(,从)(历)(史)(水)(平)(看)(,财)(政)(存)(款)(支)(出)(在)(3月)(、6月)(、9月)(和)(12月)(为)(主)(,而)(今)(年)(2月)(财)(政)(支)(出)(力)(度)(较)(历)(史)(同)(期)(水)(平)(较)(大)(,进)(一)(步)(提)(高)(了)(流)(动)(性)(水)(平)(。
结)(构)(方)(面)(:期)(限)(结)(构)(变)(化)(,长)(期)(资)(金)(投)(放)(增)(加)(,利)(率)(波)(动)(减)(弱)(。2018年)(以)(来)(,央)(行)(公)(开)(市)(场)(操)(作)(投)(放)(期)(出)(现)(分)(化)(,逆)(回)(购)(投)(放)(多)(以)(7天)(短)(期)(为)(主)(,而)(MLF投)(放)(均)(为)(1年)(期)(。具)(体)(来)(看)(,2018年)(截)(至)(4月)(10日)(,7天)(逆)(回)(购)(净)(投)(放)(量)(为)(200亿)(元)(,14天)(逆)(回)(购)(净)(投)(回)(笼)(2000亿)(元)(,28天)(逆)(回)(购)(净)(回)(笼)(4300亿)(元)(,63天)(逆)(回)(购)(净)(回)(笼)(4200亿)(元)(;3个)(月)(国)(库)(现)(金)(定)(存)(净)(投)(放)(为)(0,1年)(期)(限)(MLF净)(投)(放)(为)(3955亿)(元)(。通)(过)(测)(算)(,逆)(回)(购)(加)(权)(期)(限)(和)(利)(率)(均)(有)(所)(下)(行)(,MLF加)(权)(利)(率)(和)(期)(限)(较)(为)(稳)(定)(,缓)(慢)(上)(升)(,逆)(回)(购)(和)(MLF综)(合)(加)(权)(期)(限)(和)(利)(率)(均)(上)(升)(。流)(动)(性)(分)(层)(现)(象)(缓)(解)(。第)(一)(季)(度)(末)(银)(行)(间)(质)(押)(式)(回)(购)(利)(率)(上)(行)(加)(剧)(了)(流)(动)(性)(分)(层)(现)(象)(,3月)(30日)(R007-DR007达)(到)(2018年)(高)(点)(1.09%,4月)(后)(季)(末)(效)(应)(弱)(化)(,银)(行)(间)(与)(存)(款)(类)(机)(构)(质)(押)(式)(回)(购)(加)(权)(平)(均)(利)(率)(持)(续)(下)(行)(,流)(动)(性)(分)(层)(现)(象)(缓)(解)(。
二)(、资)(金)(面)(阶)(段)(性)(宽)(松)(的)(原)(因)(及)(对)(市)(场)(的)(影)(响)(
原)(因)(一)(:债)(市)(收)(益)(率)(与)(货)(币)(市)(场)(利)(率)(一)(致)(下)(行)(
债)(市)(收)(益)(率)(与)(货)(币)(市)(场)(利)(率)(下)(行)(区)(间)(较)(为)(一)(致)(。2018年)(春)(节)(之)(后)(,货)(币)(市)(场)(资)(金)(利)(率)(整)(体)(下)(行)(,在)(流)(动)(性)(较)(为)(充)(裕)(、资)(金)(价)(格)(走)(低)(的)(影)(响)(下)(,债)(市)(收)(益)(率)(也)(走)(出)(了)(相)(一)(致)(的)(趋)(势)(。就)(Shibor来)(看)(,从)(春)(节)(后)(2月)(22日)(至)(4月)(10日)(期)(间)(内)(,隔)(夜)(、7天)(、1个)(月)(和)(3个)(月)(利)(率)(分)(别)(下)(降)(了)(8BP、8.4BP、15.16BP和)(47.64BP,下)(降)(幅)(度)(为)(3.04%、2.91%、3.73%和)(10.12%,平)(均)(下)(降)(19.8BP区)(间)(和)(4.95%的)(幅)(度)(;债)(市)(方)(面)(,十)(年)(期)(国)(债)(到)(期)(收)(益)(率)(与)(十)(年)(期)(国)(开)(债)(到)(期)(收)(益)(率)(分)(别)(下)(降)(15.93BP和)(34.43BP,跌)(幅)(分)(别)(为)(4.11%和)(7%,平)(均)(下)(降)(25.18BP区)(间)(和)(5.56%幅)(度)(,可)(以)(看)(出)(货)(币)(市)(场)(资)(金)(价)(格)(下)(行)(区)(间)(与)(债)(市)(收)(益)(率)(下)(行)(区)(间)(较)(为)(一)(致)(,近)(一)(周)(来)(隔)(夜)(Shibor和)(银)(行)(间)(质)(押)(式)(回)(购)(加)(权)(利)(率)(有)(小)(幅)(回)(升)(,本)(周)(来)(债)(市)(也)(有)(小)(幅)(上)(行)(压)(力)(。
原)(因)(二)(:应)(对)(个)(别)(时)(点)(资)(金)(需)(求)(和)(外)(部)(冲)(击)(
2018年)(第)(一)(季)(度)(以)(来)(,2月)(份)(为)(满)(足)(春)(节)(前)(后)(资)(金)(的)(大)(量)(需)(求)(,央)(行)(进)(行)(公)(开)(市)(场)(操)(作)(净)(投)(放)(;3月)(后)(维)(稳)(两)(会)(行)(情)(,保)(持)(流)(动)(性)(适)(中)(水)(平)(;3月)(下)(旬)(以)(来)(市)(场)(流)(动)(性)(水)(平)(整)(体)(较)(为)(充)(裕)(,央)(行)(操)(作)(上)(保)(持)(自)(然)(回)(笼)(,并)(在)(适)(时)(时)(点)(进)(行)(小)(额)(投)(放)(。边)(际)(上)(来)(看)(,当)(前)(贸)(易)(战)(的)(升)(级)(或)(是)(影)(响)(货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(一)(大)(冲)(击)(,市)(场)(上)(认)(为)(货)(币)(政)(策)(会)(因)(此)(转)(松)(的)(原)(因)(有)(以)(下)(两)(点)(:
(1)放)(松)(货)(币)(政)(策)(引)(导)(汇)(率)(贬)(值)(。自)(3月)(23日)(特)(朗)(普)(针)(对)(中)(国)(贸)(易)(签)(署)(备)(忘)(录)(,宣)(称)(将)(对)(中)(国)(进)(口)(产)(品)(每)(年)(征)(收)(大)(约)(600亿)(美)(元)(的)(关)(税)(后)(,美)(元)(兑)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(持)(续)(下)(滑)(,4月)(2日)(,人)(民)(币)(对)(美)(元)(中)(间)(价)(调)(升)(117个)(基)(点)(至)(6.2764,创)(2015年)(8月)(11日)(“汇)(改)(”以)(来)(新)(高)(。在)(人)(民)(币)(持)(续)(升)(值)(的)(影)(响)(下)(,市)(场)(有)(观)(点)(认)(为)(人)(民)(币)(被)(动)(单)(边)(升)(值)(会)(对)(我)(国)(相)(关)(出)(口)(贸)(易)(造)(成)(伤)(害)(,还)(可)(能)(导)(致)(国)(际)(游)(资)(大)(量)(涌)(入)(,形)(成)(资)(产)(价)(格)(泡)(沫)(,货)(币)(政)(策)(或)(转)(松)(以)(引)(导)(人)(民)(币)(贬)(值)(,但)(我)(们)(认)(为)(通)(过)(放)(松)(货)(币)(政)(策)(对)(冲)(贸)(易)(战)(影)(响)(并)(不)(可)(取)(,一)(是)(过)(于)(宽)(松)(可)(能)(会)(形)(成)(资)(产)(价)(格)(泡)(沫)(,杠)(杆)(回)(升)(,增)(大)(系)(统)(性)(金)(融)(风)(险)(,不)(利)(于)(我)(国)(金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(和)(实)(体)(去)(杠)(杆)(进)(程)(的)(推)(进)(。二)(是)(央)(行)(行)(长)(易)(纲)(在)(博)(鳌)(亚)(洲)(论)(坛)(分)(论)(坛)(上)(被)(问)(及)(会)(否)(用)(货)(币)(政)(策)(来)(解)(决)(中)(美)(贸)(易)(纠)(纷)(时)(,也)(称)(道)(央)(行)(不)(会)(干)(预)(长)(期)(的)(汇)(率)(,中)(国)(的)(汇)(率)(机)(制)(由)(供)(需)(决)(定)(,是)(一)(个)(市)(场)(决)(定)(的)(机)(制)(,它)(运)(行)(良)(好)(,未)(来)(也)(会)(继)(续)(良)(好)(地)(运)(行)(下)(去)(。
(2)购)(买)(外)(汇)(增)(加)(人)(民)(币)(供)(给)(以)(带)(来)(贬)(值)(预)(期)(。美)(元)(贬)(值)(、人)(民)(币)(升)(值)(的)(预)(期)(下)(,长)(期)(来)(看)(的)(确)(有)(外)(资)(流)(入)(的)(压)(力)(,有)(观)(点)(认)(为)(央)(行)(可)(能)(通)(过)(外)(汇)(市)(场)(收)(购)(外)(汇)(,增)(加)(人)(民)(币)(供)(给)(,以)(对)(冲)(人)(民)(币)(升)(值)(压)(力)(,保)(持)(汇)(率)(稳)(定)(。我)(们)(认)(为)(,当)(前)(人)(民)(币)(升)(值)(更)(多)(是)(受)(到)(短)(期)(政)(策)(层)(面)(的)(影)(响)(较)(大)(,对)(资)(本)(流)(动)(的)(影)(响)(并)(不)(明)(显)(,此)(外)(,通)(过)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(增)(加)(货)(币)(供)(给)(提)(高)(流)(动)(的)(结)(果)(并)(不)(显)(著)(,我)(国)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(总)(量)(较)(前)(几)(年)(显)(著)(下)(降)(,对)(基)(础)(货)(币)(的)(边)(际)(贡)(献)(有)(限)(,且)(央)(行)(没)(有)(便)(显)(出)(购)(买)(大)(量)(外)(汇)(以)(稳)(定)(汇)(率)(的)(迹)(象)(,所)(以)(通)(过)(外)(储)(提)(高)(流)(动)(性)(水)(平)(可)(能)(性)(很)(小)(。
对)(市)(场)(的)(影)(响)(
当)(前)(债)(市)(的)(收)(益)(来)(源)(主)(要)(是)(央)(行)(流)(动)(性)(投)(放)(下)(曲)(线)(整)(体)(水)(平)(的)(下)(移)(。一)(般)(债)(券)(的)(收)(益)(主)(要)(来)(源)(于)(以)(下)(两)(个)(方)(面)(,一)(是)(通)(过)(收)(益)(率)(曲)(线)(整)(体)(下)(移)(,这)(种)(情)(况)(主)(要)(是)(因)(为)(央)(行)(通)(过)(公)(开)(市)(场)(操)(作)(和)(财)(政)(投)(放)(等)(对)(市)(场)(注)(入)(流)(动)(性)(,当)(市)(场)(流)(行)(整)(体)(较)(为)(充)(裕)(时)(,货)(币)(市)(场)(资)(金)(利)(率)(便)(会)(下)(滑)(,此)(时)(债)(市)(不)(同)(期)(限)(的)(券)(种)(会)(普)(遍)(受)(流)(动)(性)(的)(影)(响)(而)(下)(滑)(,即)(收)(益)(率)(曲)(线)(的)(下)(移)(。另)(一)(个)(是)(通)(过)(期)(限)(利)(差)(赚)(取)(收)(益)(,这)(种)(情)(况)(主)(要)(是)(受)(经)(济)(和)(通)(胀)(下)(降)(预)(期)(的)(影)(响)(,中)(长)(期)(债)(券)(收)(益)(率)(下)(行)(,而)(短)(期)(收)(益)(率)(下)(行)(不)(明)(显)(,通)(过)(期)(限)(利)(差)(的)(收)(窄)(赚)(取)(结)(构)(性)(的)(收)(益)(。就)(当)(前)(情)(况)(来)(看)(,一)(季)(度)(债)(市)(回)(暖)(的)(主)(要)(因)(素)(是)(流)(动)(性)(的)(投)(放)(,债)(市)(的)(收)(益)(来)(自)(于)(央)(行)(向)(市)(场)(投)(放)(的)(资)(金)(,这)(种)(收)(益)(受)(政)(策)(影)(响)(较)(大)(,一)(旦)(央)(行)(收)(紧)(流)(动)(性)(,利)(润)(空)(间)(将)(被)(挤)(压)(,而)(第)(二)(种)(收)(益)(在)(当)(前)(通)(胀)(上)(升)(预)(期)(和)(全)(球)(经)(济)(回)(暖)(的)(带)(动)(下)(又)(较)(难)(实)(现)(,所)(以)(目)(前)(债)(市)(收)(益)(的)(来)(源)(具)(有)(较)(大)(的)(不)(稳)(定)(性)(。
三)(、对)(未)(来)(货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(预)(判)(:过)(度)(宽)(松)(不)(可)(持)(续)(,基)(准)(利)(率)(即)(将)(市)(场)(化)(调)(整)(
结)(构)(性)(去)(杠)(杆)(的)(前)(提)(是)(总)(杠)(杆)(水)(平)(控)(制)(在)(较)(低)(位)(置)(。货)(币)(政)(策)(作)(为)(总)(量)(政)(策)(,影)(响)(整)(体)(经)(济)(和)(杠)(杆)(问)(题)(,2017年)(国)(货)(币)(政)(策)(整)(体)(收)(紧)(的)(情)(况)(下)(实)(体)(和)(金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(都)(取)(得)(了)(一)(定)(的)(成)(效)(,四)(季)(度)(之)(后)(显)(现)(了)(一)(些)(结)(构)(性)(问)(题)(。如)(企)(业)(方)(面)(,2016年)(以)(来)(十)(大)(行)(业)(的)(的)(平)(均)(资)(产)(负)(债)(率)(除)(了)(地)(产)(行)(业)(外)(均)(呈)(企)(稳)(或)(者)(下)(降)(趋)(势)(,但)(2017年)(第)(四)(季)(度)(不)(同)(行)(业)(杠)(杆)(出)(现)(了)(分)(化)(。其)(中)(建)(材)(行)(业)(第)(四)(季)(度)(下)(降)(了)(6.09个)(百)(分)(点)(,有)(色)(金)(属)(行)(业)(下)(降)(了)(3.81个)(百)(分)(点)(,钢)(铁)(行)(业)(下)(降)(了)(2.02个)(百)(分)(点)(;另)(有)(一)(些)(行)(业)(出)(现)(了)(明)(显)(的)(加)(杠)(杆)(现)(象)(,如)(电)(力)(行)(业)(资)(产)(负)(债)(率)(上)(升)(了)(4.13个)(百)(分)(点)(,机)(械)(设)(备)(行)(业)(也)(上)(升)(了)(3.74个)(百)(分)(点)(。对)(于)(去)(杠)(杆)(,中)(央)(先)(是)(提)(出)(了)(降)(低)(实)(体)(经)(济)(杠)(杆)(率)(的)(总)(体)(要)(求)(,然)(后)(逐)(渐)(明)(确)(了)(要)(降)(低)(企)(业)(部)(门)(的)(杠)(杆)(率)(,最)(后)(明)(确)(了)(主)(要)(是)(降)(低)(国)(有)(企)(业)(的)(杠)(杆)(率)(;对)(于)(地)(方)(政)(府)(债)(务)(,多)(次)(会)(议)(的)(提)(法)(是)(规)(范)(地)(方)(政)(府)(的)(举)(债)(行)(为)(,当)(下)(我)(国)(正)(逐)(步)(形)(成)(以)(地)(方)(政)(府)(和)(国)(有)(企)(业)(为)(重)(点)(,分)(部)(门)(和)(债)(务)(类)(型)(的)(结)(构)(性)(去)(杠)(杆)(策)(略)(,结)(构)(性)(去)(杠)(杆)(不)(代)(表)(总)(量)(政)(策)(目)(标)(弱)(化)(,而)(是)(在)(控)(制)(总)(量)(杠)(杆)(稳)(中)(有)(降)(的)(基)(础)(上)(进)(一)(步)(实)(施)(结)(构)(性)(去)(杠)(杆)(的)(措)(施)(。总)(体)(来)(看)(,由)(于)(结)(构)(性)(去)(杠)(杆)(、配)(合)(后)(期)(监)(管)(,所)(以)(货)(币)(政)(策)(不)(会)(向)(去)(年)(那)(么)(紧)(,但)(也)(不)(会)(总)(是)(维)(持)(资)(金)(面)(像)(一)(季)(度)(这)(种)(松)(的)(程)(度)(。
相)(关)(机)(构)(对)(监)(管)(政)(策)(已)(有)(相)(应)(的)(准)(备)(,资)(管)(新)(规)(正)(式)(落)(地)(对)(市)(场)(的)(冲)(击)(较)(为)(温)(和)(。此)(前)(,中)(央)(全)(面)(深)(化)(改)(革)(领)(导)(小)(组)(改)(组)(为)(委)(员)(会)(的)(第)(一)(次)(会)(议)(,通)(过)(了)(《关)(于)(规)(范)(金)(融)(机)(构)(资)(产)(管)(理)(业)(务)(的)(指)(导)(意)(见)(》(资)(管)(新)(规)(),凸)(显)(了)(在)(防)(范)(化)(解)(重)(大)(风)(险)(作)(为)(今)(后)(3年)(三)(大)(攻)(坚)(战)(之)(首)(的)(大)(背)(景)(下)(,规)(范)(资)(管)(行)(业)(的)(重)(要)(性)(与)(迫)(切)(性)(。其)(中)(,委)(外)((特)(别)(是)(127号)(文)(中)(界)(定)(的)(同)(业)(投)(资)(项)(下)(的)(特)(定)(目)(的)(载)(体)(投)(资)()是)(资)(金)(空)(转)(现)(象)(较)(突)(出)(、嵌)(套)(层)(级)(较)(多)(、加)(杠)(杆)(较)(明)(显)(的)(领)(域)(,在)(银)(监)(会)(4号)(文)((《关)(于)(进)(一)(步)(深)(化)(整)(治)(银)(行)(业)(市)(场)(乱)(象)(的)(通)(知)(》)出)(台)(后)(,对)(委)(外)(的)(整)(治)(从)(5月)(即)(开)(始)(,在)(2017年)(5月)(至)(8月)(这)(三)(个)(多)(月)(的)(时)(间)(里)(,理)(财)(委)(外)(就)(减)(少)(了)(超)(过)(5000亿)(元)(。而)(据)(中)(国)(证)(券)(报)(援)(引)(银)(监)(会)(的)(数)(据)(,截)(至)(2017年)(11月)(理)(财)(中)(的)(委)(外)(投)(资)(较)(年)(初)(减)(少)(了)(5888亿)(元)(。金)(融)(监)(管)(对)(货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(影)(响)(主)(要)(体)(现)(在)(两)(方)(面)(,一)(方)(面)(是)(银)(监)(会)(在)(2018年)(全)(国)(银)(行)(业)(监)(督)(管)(理)(工)(作)(会)(议)(上)(明)(确)(,今)(年)(将)(继)(续)(压)(缩)(同)(业)(投)(资)(,将)(特)(定)(目)(的)(载)(体)(投)(资)(作)(为)(监)(管)(检)(查)(重)(点)(,对)(委)(外)(机)(构)(实)(行)(名)(单)(制)(管)(理)(;另)(一)(方)(面)(也)(显)(示)(,基)(于)(主)(动)(管)(理)(、以)(资)(产)(配)(置)(和)(组)(合)(管)(理)(为)(目)(的)(的)(委)(外)(,政)(策)(将)(给)(与)(足)(够)(的)(空)(间)(。综)(合)(来)(看)(,2018年)(资)(管)(新)(规)(对)(市)(场)(的)(影)(响)(更)(加)(细)(化)(和)(具)(体)(,且)(此)(前)(相)(关)(机)(构)(对)(在)(总)(量)(方)(面)(已)(有)(相)(应)(的)(准)(备)(,对)(后)(续)(监)(管)(政)(策)(的)(进)(一)(步)(落)(地)(已)(有)(较)(充)(分)(的)(预)(期)(,所)(以)(后)(续)(在)(配)(合)(监)(管)(方)(面)(,货)(币)(政)(策)(没)(有)(转)(松)(的)(必)(要)(。
流)(动)(性)(过)(于)(宽)(松)(或)(触)(发)(央)(行)(态)(度)(转)(变)(。目)(前)(,流)(动)(性)(水)(平)(已)(非)(常)(宽)(松)(,这)(是)(债)(市)(回)(暖)(的)(主)(要)(原)(因)(,十)(年)(期)(国)(债)(收)(益)(率)(和)(MLF利)(差)(2016年)(以)(来)(逐)(渐)(收)(窄)(,更)(需)(需)(要)(关)(注)(边)(际)(上)(的)(变)(化)(,要)(对)(未)(来)(市)(场)(做)(出)(预)(判)(需)(要)(明)(确)(以)(下)(几)(点)(,一)(是)(决)(定)(当)(前)(政)(策)(的)(主)(要)(矛)(盾)(和)(目)(标)(是)(什)(么)(,二)(是)(政)(策)(的)(途)(径)(及)(其)(影)(响)(。对)(于)(当)(前)(货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(主)(要)(矛)(盾)(和)(目)(标)(而)(言)(,防)(止)(不)(发)(生)(系)(统)(性)(金)(融)(的)(情)(况)(下)(逐)(步)(去)(除)(金)(融)(体)(系)(过)(高)(的)(杠)(杆)(水)(平)(仍)(是)(当)(前)(政)(策)(决)(定)(的)(主)(要)(目)(标)(,央)(行)(行)(长)(在)(在)(博)(鳌)(亚)(洲)(论)(坛)(分)(论)(坛)(上)(提)(到)(:“中)(国)(实)(施)(审)(慎)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(,我)(们)(没)(有)(任)(何)(量)(化)(宽)(松)(、零)(利)(率)(政)(策)(,现)(在)(主)(要)(央)(行)(都)(在)(收)(紧)(利)(率)(,开)(始)(退)(出)(扩)(张)(,也)(会)(进)(行)(缩)(表)(,我)(们)(已)(经)(有)(很)(长)(时)(间)(期)(待)(这)(样)(的)(政)(策)(发)(生)(,我)(们)(也)(已)(经)(准)(备)(好)(了)(。”可)(以)(总)(结)(出)(三)(条)(信)(息)(;一)(是)(我)(国)(仍)(将)(实)(施)(审)(慎)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(,结)(合)(我)(国)(当)(前)(形)(势)(来)(看)(,去)(杠)(杆)(取)(得)(了)(一)(定)(成)(就)(但)(仍)(有)(较)(大)(去)(化)(空)(间)(,货)(币)(政)(策)(可)(能)(由)(此)(前)(的)(偏)(紧)(状)(态)(转)(向)(稳)(健)(中)(性)(,但)(转)(松)(的)(可)(能)(性)(很)(小)(。二)(是)(我)(国)(已)(经)(做)(好)(相)(应)(的)(准)(备)(,具)(体)(来)(讲)(,即)(前)(期)(我)(国)(金)(融)(杠)(杆)(较)(高)(,泡)(沫)(程)(度)(较)(大)(,但)(目)(前)(杠)(杆)(的)(去)(化)(程)(度)(已)(经)(可)(以)(防)(范)(全)(球)(加)(息)(带)(来)(的)(冲)(击)(。三)(是)(全)(球)(央)(行)(开)(启)(加)(息)(政)(策)(,我)(国)(将)(顺)(应)(这)(一)(趋)(势)(提)(高)(利)(率)(,这)(一)(点)(与)(同)(时)(提)(出)(的)(“虽)(然)(我)(们)(有)(基)(准)(利)(率)(作)(为)(一)(个)(指)(导)(,但)(是)(在)(未)(来)(,借)(款)(和)(存)(款)(利)(率)(也)(将)(会)(主)(要)(由)(市)(场)(来)(决)(定)(”相)(对)(应)(,属)(于)(货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(实)(施)(途)(径)(。
关)(于)(货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(调)(整)(基)(准)(利)(率)(的)(途)(径)(,我)(们)(是)(最)(坚)(定)(也)(是)(去)(年)(年)(底)(时)(最)(早)(提)(出)(来)(的)(。我)(们)(早)(在)(2017年)(11月)(提)(出)(,如)(果)(2018年)(通)(胀)(水)(平)(回)(升)(较)(为)(明)(显)(,央)(行)(可)(能)(重)(新)(上)(调)(存)(贷)(款)(基)(准)(利)(率)(,详)(细)(内)(容)(请)(关)(注)(我)(们)(的)(报)(告)(《利)(率)(债)(专)(题)(—2018年)(全)(球)(货)(币)(政)(策)(和)(大)(类)(资)(产)(展)(望)(》和)(《中)(国)(央)(行)(加)(息)(深)(度)(点)(评)(及)(债)(市)(分)(析)(:放)(量)(加)(息)(跟)(随)(,债)(市)(近)(期)(有)(望)(回)(暖)(》;在)(报)(告)(《流)(动)(性)(与)(汇)(率)(周)(报)(20180104—非)(对)(称)(性)(加)(息)(历)(史)(回)(顾)(与)(展)(望)(》中)(重)(点)(提)(到)(了)(非)(对)(称)(加)(息)(的)(观)(点)(,认)(为)(上)(调)(存)(款)(利)(率)(可)(以)(配)(合)(全)(球)(加)(息)(周)(期)(和)(国)(内)(通)(胀)(走)(势)(,也)(有)(利)(于)(鼓)(励)(银)(行)(表)(外)(业)(务)(回)(表)(和)(金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(的)(继)(续)(推)(进)(;此)(外)(,在)(报)(告)(《债)(市)(启)(明)(系)(列)(20180319——关)(于)(加)(息)(的)(五)(个)(关)(键)(问)(题)(》提)(出)(就)(当)(前)(国)(内)(外)(经)(济)(和)(政)(策)(周)(期)(看)(,我)(们)(支)(持)(央)(行)(对)(存)(贷)(款)(基)(准)(利)(率)(的)(调)(整)(,关)(于)(存)(贷)(款)(基)(准)(利)(率)(调)(整)(的)(方)(式)(和)(幅)(度)(,我)(们)(认)(为)(留)(给)(央)(行)(的)(可)(选)(空)(间)(较)(大)(,现)(实)(的)(选)(择)(中)(,对)(称)(加)(息)(和)(非)(对)(称)(加)(息)(都)(可)(以)(成)(为)(央)(行)(调)(整)(存)(贷)(款)(基)(准)(利)(率)(的)(选)(项)(,并)(总)(结)(了)(今)(年)(以)(来)(暗)(示)(存)(贷)(款)(利)(率)(调)(整)(的)(若)(干)(信)(号)(。
综)(合)(来)(看)(,我)(们)(认)(为)(存)(贷)(款)(基)(准)(利)(率)(市)(场)(化)(的)(推)(进)(是)(深)(化)(金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(这)(一)(目)(标)(下)(,货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(途)(径)(之)(一)(。我)(们)(认)(为)(具)(体)(可)(能)(有)(以)(下)(两)(种)(方)(式)(,一)(是)(通)(过)(上)(调)(基)(准)(利)(率)(,二)(是)(通)(过)(扩)(大)(上)(浮)(幅)(度)(甚)(至)(取)(消)(上)(限)(的)(形)(式)(来)(实)(现)(。具)(体)(来)(看)(,第)(一)(种)(方)(式)(与)(当)(下)(金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(的)(深)(化)(目)(标)(更)(为)(一)(致)(,有)(助)(于)(提)(高)(存)(款)(类)(金)(融)(机)(构)(控)(制)(负)(债)(端)(成)(本)(和)(资)(产)(端)(收)(益)(率)(的)(灵)(活)(性)(,有)(助)(于)(鼓)(励)(银)(行)(表)(外)(理)(财)(、通)(道)(业)(务)(等)(表)(外)(业)(务)(回)(归)(表)(内)(存)(款)(。第)(二)(种)(方)(式)(符)(合)(今)(年)(金)(融)(进)(一)(步)(开)(放)(的)(目)(标)(,目)(前)(来)(看)(银)(行)(表)(内)(存)(款)(利)(率)(与)(存)(单)(利)(率)(、货)(币)(市)(场)(利)(率)(等)(主)(要)(类)(型)(市)(场)(利)(率)(相)(比)(偏)(低)(,扩)(大)(存)(贷)(款)(基)(准)(利)(率)(上)(浮)(幅)(度)(甚)(至)(取)(消)(上)(限)(也)(会)(推)(动)(基)(准)(利)(率)(提)(升)(,对)(于)(存)(款)(利)(率)(来)(说)(,低)(基)(准)(利)(率)(一)(定)(程)(度)(上)(束)(缚)(了)(银)(行)(表)(内)(存)(款)(利)(率)(,银)(行)(存)(款)(利)(率)(比)(较)(僵)(化)(,因)(此)(提)(高)(基)(准)(利)(率)(可)(以)(增)(加)(银)(行)(存)(款)(利)(率)(的)(弹)(性)(。对)(于)(贷)(款)(利)(率)(来)(说)(,央)(行)(若)(上)(调)(贷)(款)(基)(准)(利)(率)(可)(能)(会)(出)(于)(控)(制)(宏)(观)(杠)(杆)(率)(的)(考)(虑)(,2017年)(银)(行)(贷)(款)(加)(权)(平)(均)(利)(率)(总)(体)(稳)(定)(略)(降)(,而)(且)(实)(际)(利)(率)(并)(不)(高)(,一)(定)(幅)(度)(内)(上)(调)(贷)(款)(贷)(款)(基)(准)(利)(率)(可)(能)(对)(实)(体)(经)(济)(的)(冲)(击)(有)(限)(。
债)(市)(策)(略)(
就)(债)(市)(而)(言)(,前)(期)(央)(行)(流)(动)(性)(投)(放)(较)(为)(充)(裕)(推)(动)(债)(市)(出)(现)(回)(暖)(,市)(场)(资)(金)(价)(格)(也)(出)(现)(了)(显)(著)(的)(下)(行)(趋)(势)(,市)(场)(有)(观)(点)(猜)(测)(未)(来)(货)(币)(政)(策)(将)(转)(松)(,我)(们)(通)(过)(总)(结)(引)(起)(市)(场)(预)(期)(政)(策)(转)(松)(的)(三)(大)(因)(素)(,分)(析)(得)(到)(当)(下)(并)(不)(存)(在)(政)(策)(持)(续)(转)(松)(的)(基)(础)(。在)(对)(未)(来)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(及)(市)(场)(的)(预)(判)(方)(面)(,我)(们)(认)(为)(流)(动)(性)(过)(于)(宽)(松)(或)(触)(发)(央)(行)(态)(度)(转)(变)(,此)(外)(,当)(前)(央)(行)(提)(出)(的)(存)(贷)(款)(基)(准)(利)(率)(市)(场)(化)(短)(期)(内)(或)(将)(提)(升)(利)(率)(上)(行)(的)(预)(期)(,结)(合)(央)(行)(行)(长)(在)(博)(鳌)(亚)(洲)(论)(坛)(分)(论)(坛)(上)(的)(谈)(话)(,我)(们)(认)(为)(,前)(期)(货)(币)(政)(策)(较)(松)(或)(是)(为)(了)(应)(对)(后)(期)(利)(率)(市)(场)(化)(等)(冲)(击)(的)(措)(施)(,货)(币)(政)(策)(转)(松)(不)(可)(持)(续)(,我)(们)(认)(为)(我)(们)(认)(为)(国)(内)(10年)(国)(债)(收)(益)(率)(将)(在)(3.8%中)(枢)(运)(行)(。
来)(源)(:明)(晰)(笔)(谈)(返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
声)(明)(:该)(文)(观)(点)(仅)(代)(表)(作)(者)(本)(人)(,搜)(狐)(号)(系)(信)(息)(发)(布)(平)(台)(,搜)(狐)(仅)(提)(供)(信)(息)(存)(储)(空)(间)(服)(务)(。
阅)(读)(()
)


相关文章

版权所有:南方新闻网 粤ICP备05070829 网站标识码4400000131
主办:南方新闻网 协办:广东省经济和信息化委员会 承办:南方新闻网
建议使用1024×768分辨率 IE7.0以上版本浏览器